If you want to make an absurd of something, then bring it to the absolute: is Moldova plunging into another election?

Sadly, history teaches us that history doesn’t teach us anything. Sometimes political developments seem like a deja-vu, it feels like it has happened already like that.

During the presidential campaign in 2004 in Ukraine, the open bullying support by Russian President Putin of the pro-Russian candidate Viktor Yanukovych, has served more like a black mark for the latter, who ultimately lost to Yuschenko, perceived more pro-Ukrainian, more independent.

Now in Moldova there is also a perspective presidential candidate, Mr.Marian Lupu. A few weeks ago during the CIS summit in Kishinev President Medvedev had a private meeting with Mr.Lupu to show Moscow’s support for the man.

Did it work? On the contrary, as the first round of voting last week was even called off by the Parliament, which is controlled by the democratic majority supporting Marian Lupu.

More than that, someone seems to have mocked Mr.Lupu by putting him, so far a simple member of the parliament, on the front line during the meeting of heads of states. In the end it looked so awkward that no one wanted to stay for the evening official reception at the unique Cricova wine cellars. Was it lack of confidence, or absence of experience, or was it someone’s skillful plan to put him in such an ambiguous situation? It is quite obvious that if he ultimately becomes President of Moldova, he would have had many opportunities to meet the other heads of state.

Someone would say it is a lack of style. And probably it will be the right remark about everything that’s happening lately in the new Moldova, led now by the democratic alliance - not that they are bad, no. It just seems to be immature.

The victory of democrats in July was a long awaited breath of fresh air in a country abused by police and security service, and turned by communists into their private supermarket. One can feel the relaxation in the air, people having less fear and being glad that now their phones are not tapped without any pretext, and police on the streets being nicer.

However, the further Moldova goes the new way, the more questions appear, primarily about the integrity and consistency of the governing coalition. It was easy to have a united front when former opposition has been fighting against the communists, but it is much more difficult to stay together when you have to promote a common policy on issues of internal and external policies, of the economy falling apart, of uncovering the abuses of the former regime. Besides that, when there are two obvious rising stars of Marian Lupu and Vladimir Filat, the further scenarios may become totally unpredictable. The current triumvirate in Moldova to a great extend resembles the situation with Yuschenko-Yanukovych-Timoshenko puzzle in Ukraine, and it is not yet clear who will be whom in Moldova.

There are too many unknowns.

In such complex situations the best way to move forward is to respect the following principles:

1) not to irritate the people;

2) not to show signs of weakness and hesitation;

3) provide a clear, consistent and galvanizing new state vision that would inspire the nation. Unfortunately, the new administration continuously makes gaffes in all three aspects.

So far only the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Justice and Ministry of Interior have shown consistency and professionalism, all three of them belonging to the Liberal Democratic Party of Moldova. The rest is vague and quite unpredictable.

It is OK to order publicly the Interior Minister to unmount in two hours the special road sign, which limited the traffic on the street of the former President Voronin, but it is not enough. It is OK to raise energy and public transportation prices in Kishinev, if the financial situation requires so, but it should have been done differently, not in a rush, but rather as a carefully prepared state decision. It is not OK one day to say you want into NATO, and next day that you didn’t mean it. It was also not good to provide grounds for very bad rumors about appointing the new Prosecutor General. Is it OK for a politician to compare oneself to Putin?

While walking on such a political minefield, one shouldn’t make too many careless moves, each of which is not fatal separately, but potentially turning into an explosion when gathered together and used at the right time. Too little inspiring ideas of how to turn around the economy - only blaming the predecessors and appealing for another loans from international donors, then what is the difference from the previous administration, which has done exactly the same?!

Ironically, to some extend the new democratic coalition is in fact falling into the same trap, which communists haven’t managed to notice in time: the electorate is getting smarter, people started to analyze, compare, forecast. Comparison is a very fragile thing, its pendulum easily swinging from one favorite to another, especially when it goes about stability, predictability and security, which are not difficult to challenge. You don’t have to be a great analyst to understand that by the amendments to the laws on the status of the deputy and government member the leading alliance has just covered their own backs. This and another initiative allowing distant voting through a letter provide good trump cards for the communist propaganda machine. If politicians show to the public that they care more for themselves rather than for their electorate, then forecasting of the near future in such circumstances seems rather foggy. However, it more and more looks like the current developments are not final and is just a transition period that would lead to consolidation of two poles on the Moldovan political arena probably with some buffer in the middle. In other words, the country may be rushing into another election next year.