Talibans in Afghanistan and Pakistan: friends or foes?

CNN, BBC and other major news agencies are reporting about the growing tensions in Northern regions of Pakistan. Scary comments about threat of overthrowing the Pakistani Government, about getting access to nuclear arsenals, about uncontrolled spiraling chaos are overwhelming.

But is that really so?

Any phenomena in this world is a result of a sequence of events, quite often not seen to the unprepared mass audience, which is easy to indoctrinate when necessary. Whereas any action of Taliban scale requires three essential things: a purpose, arms, and lots of money.

Putting aside details, the major sequence of events is as follows.

First, Talibans appeared as an anti-Soviet resistance in Afghanistan, being prepared and trained in the Western Pakistan regions with a generous financial and military assistance of the CIA and other US Western allies. This was a righteous war and in the end Talibans won and came to control whole Afghanistan. They have installed quite a strict islamist administration with highly questionable social rules (for example, for women). But finally peace and order have come to Afghanistan, which might have been a good basis for the country's restoration after 20 years of devastating wars. And, yes, one more thing: Talibans during their few years in power in Afghanistan basically eradicated the production of narcotics, for the "fighting" with which billions of dollars are spent.

Osama bin Laden didn't report very much to Talibans, as Talibans were mostly a regional social and ideologic structure, whereas Osama's Al-Quaida had a global outreach. But after 9/11 US have rapidly removed the Talibans from power as punishment for hiding Osama.

The outcome of this removal is twofold: in a matter of a year Afghanistan has become again the world leader of poppy seeds production and exports of drugs, and Talibans have reorganized themselves and started operations in Pakistan, which earlier served only as training and recreation basis.

Wasn't that foreseen, with all the intelligence and brain power behind? Highly doubtful. Otherwise, one may start thinking that destabilization in this region through Talibs serves someone's real intentions.

On the other side, Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf, a charismatic, intelligent, strong military general, well respected by the Pakistani Army, was the only serious opposition to Talibans.

Frankly, I was quite surprised when he was forced to resign. Like again, no one was realizing what's going on, and what it all might lead to? When such a strong person left and instead of him a big and weak unknown, "widower of Benazir Bhutto", has been elected, it became clear already then that something really bad is cooking. Which now starts to finally taking its shapes.

Talibs and fundamentalists negotiated a "deal" with Islamabad to allow them to impose Sharia in the region of Swat in exchange for giving up the armaments. Who negotiated such a deal in a sovereign state and was it legal and constitutional - remains an open question? But the Talibs have not disarmed and are successfully marching towards the capital. And guess what, in spite of the news that the Army is sent to the conflicting area, I bet that it all be in vain, and very soon the Taliban will control Islamabad, or....

Or the third force will intervene! For the sake of preserving order in a country, which possesses nuclear arms!

What is the purpose of all this undoubtedly orchestrated chaos? You may ask anyone of those Talibs what he will do after capturing Islamabad, and probably he will not provide any sensible answer. It would be too simply to finger point onto CIA and quite premature on China or India. Too complicated, but the Truth will surface very soon, when there will be an answer about who and what had to gain from this, and whose game the Talibans are playing, be it as (false) friends or (pretended) foes. (Remember: there are no friends and enemies in politics - there are interests!)

But so far, only those who provide arms and drugs are definitely winning. Or is it all about drugs?