"Pendulum politics" of Moldova or is it truly important geopolitically?

After almost three years of a stalemate political tension in the Republic of Moldova is currently rising to a peak not only because the Parliament is trying again to elect a President, but also due to the fact that the Moldovan separatist region Transnistria has recently elected a new President. With that in mind, not only Moldovan politicians argue about the country's geopolitical importance, but also foreign nations are making their bets on future's Moldovan course, as it is really like a roulette: it's either "red" with communists still playing the card of "our future is with Russia and within the CIS customs/economic union, on one side, or "black", or in our case better say "blue" as is the flag of the European Union, integration with which is a trump card of the democratic parties.

On one side, most of the population has been for many years quite skeptic about integrating into the EU: for 200 years Moldova was in the orbit of huge Russian economic, political and religious influence, which has not disappeared up today. The argument that EU in reality doesn't really need poor Moldova with outdated economy and extremely corrupt political system has been prevailing for quite a while. Recently the former President Voronin declared that Moldova should not turn itself into a forgotten outskirt of European Union. (And this in spite of the fact that during his second term in office Voronin managed to spoil relations with Russia and made the European integration the core of his foreign policy.) The Russian Patriarch Cyril, who has visited Moldova in October has made it crystal clear, that Moldova has a highest ratio of Russian Orthodox church disciples, and as such will be an important part of the Russian Church area of influence. Even most of Moldovan economy and businesses were mostly oriented towards Russia and former Soviet Union markets. More than that, after a massive privatization many nouveau riches enjoyed their new wealth status and a priori discarded pro-Romanian or pro-European course as a potential threat to their property, which has not always been acquired transparently and fairly.

But things are changing, and quite rapidly. First of all, businesses have learned to deal with the West, and export markets now are not so much linked to CIS, as they used to be for many years. But most importantly is that mentality and appreciation of the European Union is changing fast. With almost a quarter of population working abroad, with people more freely traveling to Europe and spending their holidays there, including all political leaders from left and right, European Union, in spite of its internal problems, is turning for most of the population a sample of order, predictability, social security, rule of law, guaranteed quality of products and services, respect and care for elderly, truly free state protected entrepreneurship and competition, and so on. While East is imposing high energy prices, and brings instability and insecurity, with sometimes quite a bullying political attitude towards a small nation.

That is why recently the polls for the first time showed that more than half of the population would be in favor of joining the European Union. Yet, strangely, at the same time, the majority still sees more economic benefits in joining the economic union so actively now promoted by Russia.

Local politicians are proudly repeating for more than a decade that Moldova is strategically well placed and geopolitically important, and that it is an ideal place for foreign investments. Russia recently made a loud and important declaration about a possibility to strengthen its military presence in Transnistria by deploying there missile defense systems as a countermeasure to the US bases in Romania and in order to maintain and strengthen its geopolitical influence on the Balkan direction.

Is Moldova truly so important?

If we consider the first statement, then I'd say that Moldovan politicians failed to notice how these statements gradually turned into an empty cliché, because for two decades the country's political elite only fought each other, and never managed to identify a clear economic model of the country and actually build it up. What is really so special about the country's strategic location or its assets, what unique advantages it can offer, that cannot be found, say, in neighboring Romania or Ukraine, or else? Nothing. International transporting of cargos and energy resources can easily detour the small country, as Russia proceeded with the Nordstream gas pipeline. Investment climate attractiveness in major terms is very much overstated due to high corruption, political and legal instability, due to brain drain, due to lack of resources and high energy costs.

Important military wise? Come on! For whom? For Russia, which builds gas pipelines directly into the heart of Europe (Germany), launches satellites from French Guyana thru EU space Agency, and is now already discussing visa free regime with the European Union, and with investments of Russian origin now invading Europe and becoming a macroeconomic stability factor? Some say even that Russia would join NATO in the near future.

Clearly there is no any real threat from EU to Russia. Moreover, in modern warfare where the decisive factors are precision, tempo and intensity of technologically advanced systems, maintaining an outdated 14th army in Transnistrian part of Moldova (even with Iskander rockets installed there) would just be a huge waste of Russian money.

Actually, Russia is already wasting billions of dollars of its own people’s money to economically support the so called “strategically important pro-Russian regime in Transnistria”, and still continues to pump money into Tiraspol regime, which in its turn steals most of it. Has anyone asked loudly the Kremlin administration if it’s worth and wise? Probably the only hope now is to somehow finally find a solution for this Transnistrian conflict together with the EU, which will take over the multibillion debts of the unified Moldova. (Given EU’s own financial crisis, the question “will it?” is in the air.)

Russia’s near future threats come now not from the West, but from the East, in two major senses: rapidly strengthening military Islamism, and, slow but steady hidden conquest of Siberia by China. With a negative population growth in Russia the vast quite depopulated forgotten lands to the East of Urals are attracting more and more Chinese people (according to some estimates, dozens of millions of illegal Chinese have already invaded Siberia, and this number doesn’t stop growing) and Chinese investors, looking for natural expansion for the second economically most powerful country in the world.

History was neither fair nor kind to the Great Moldova, which proudly tried to withstand through centuries between East and West, between empires, between cultures and religions – probably that’s why it always been a tradeoff and cut into smaller pieces by bigger geopolitical players. Is nowadays the tiny Moldova, or better say, what’s left of it, of any geopolitical importance to the surrounding world?

Probably yes, but not in the sense the Moldovan politicians mean.

First of all, in today’s “small globalized world”, where all spots under the sun are occupied, any piece of populated land counts, both as markets and production sites. And Moldova, in spite of absence of any mineral resources or other special attractiveness, could eventually provide its own exclusive added value as bridge head between East and West, if the right economic model is found and accomplished.

Secondly, the fast economic growth of Romania, its strengthening positions in the European Union, feed up the geopolitical ambitions of getting Moldova “back into the Big Romania”, be it either in a hidden way done through mass passportization of Moldovans or through the postulate that Moldova’s EU integration is possible only through and within Romania. Though traditionally only about 5-7% of Moldova’s population are considering themselves Romanians and are positive about joining Romania, and whilst this number has never increased for 20 years (which is quite significant), nevertheless the Bucharest administration is quite aggressively pursuing this target, spending a lot of political and financial means for strengthening its pro-Romanian influence in Moldova. These actions cause negative reactions not only from within Moldova, but also from other main players, as not many states around would like to have an even stronger Romania, which could very much mess up the balance of powers and interests in the region and within the EU. That not only could be the direct explanation of the “pendulum politics” in Moldova, but may be also the main cause of the pro-Russian sympathies in Moldova, which are based on understanding that actually the Russian indirect presence has been and is still playing a decisive role in maintaining Moldova’s independence, no matter how strange this may sound. More than that, the resolution of the Transnistrian conflict and final unification of Moldova not only will undoubtedly fortify Moldova’s independence, but will also end regional geopolitical tug-of-war and establish regional geopolitical stability.

Thirdly, Moldova as a state would become an economically and geopolitically appealing if we see it as a “glass half full”, as still a work in progress. If political parties would overcome their egotism and personal ambitions, and if as a result Moldova will elect a leader, who would be smart to see Moldova as it is, with its multiculturalism and with its pendulum politics not as a drawback and a leverage for breaking it down completely, but as an advantage based on two cores inside, as a solenoid producing power from rotating between two poles, then this small nation may me modeled as a plasticine into something viable and attractive both for the East and the West, and could become a second Switzerland in the Eastern Europe.