Was Russia behind the tragic death of Lech Kaczynski?

There is no doubt conspiracy theories will long survive the tragic death of Polish President Kaczynski. It has always been and will always be the same perception of similar cases when prominent politicians suddenly get into strange accidents.

The strangeness of this accident is, however, not how did it happen, but why and when. How - seems a widely accepted fact that the pilot has been under enormous presidential pressure of "You must land under any circumstances here and now!" in spite of several failed attempts to land in a pretty bad visibility conditions and in spite of flight control authorities advice to fly either to Moscow or Minsk.

Strangeness of why and when seem to be linked both to the personality of Mr.Kaczynski and to the most important question in any conspiracy theories of who is to gain most from his death?

Lech Kazcynski was obviously a very charismatic personality, and I'd say the last mohicans not only of the Solidarnost movement, but also of the outgoing generation of East European leaders born and raised under socialist rule, which imprinted on most of them a very special mark of state quality (in former Soviet block it was a sign of top quality). As such, Lech Kazcynski was an uncompromising warrior for society moral values, hence his deep catholic creed, and for safeguarding state's interests. He succeeded in both directions, having showed so much activity and pushing that he managed to irritate a lot of people.

The disagreements between President Lech Kazcynski and Prime Minister Tusk at one point have reached a ridiculous stance. Poland's position on many internal EU issues and on some bilateral issues with Germany have been highly challenging, to put it mildly. Not to mention that as a conservative religious person, Mr.Kazcynski's views were much closer to Vatican and US, rather than to most of EU liberal leaders.

However, it was Poland-Russia relations where Lech Kazcynski managed to reach the level of highest annoyance: position on Russian meat and gas transit, on Nordsteram, deployment of US advance reaction rocket shield, direct support of Georgia's President Saakashvili, who has infuriated Moscow, and of Ukraine's President Yuschenko, who wasn't Moscow's favorite either - all was sufficient for placing President Kazcynski in the list of Russia's foes.

If that was not enough, President Kazcynski was vociferously demanding from Russian authorities a full disclosure of the Khatyn massacre archives. And whereas meat and gas was more than a temporary nuisance for Russia, the shameful Khatyn massacre by the Stalinist regime (which to a certain extend became a basis of the new 'strong state' ideology in Russia) is more personal, more ideological, more deeply inflicting the new image of Russia's re-emerging power. This was not something for Moscow to tolerate.

And the smart Mr.Putin made a well planned effort to patch up this ever pervasive problem, which would have cast shadow also on the 65th anniversary of the Victory over fascism. Russian authorities disclosed most of the archives and not only built a commemoration memorial in Khatyn, but also had it opened it by Vladimir Putin together with ... Polish Prime Minister Tusk.

Now we know why Lech Kazcynski wanted so much to be there in Khatyn on April 10th at another ceremony. It was a 100% 'must be there' situation. It was a situation without compromises, as landing in Minsk or in Moscow, would have completely abolished the whole idea of his journey, during which he was planning to ask again for a full and ultimate disclosure of all dossiers relating to Khatyn.

But in spite of all the above, we think all so called 'leads' to Moscow are a mere speculation of journalists willing to get attention: it is too cheap, too simple, too senseless, and really silly to consider four attempts to land as an assassination plot. A seemingly 'logical' speculation that Russia would have gained from removing an uncomfortable leader of an important neighbor, may be easily challenged by another 'conspiracy' question about 'who would benefit from everyone's thinking that it was Russia's plot?'. And so on...

So, it was not who, but what caused the accident. I believe that like any accident, it was a coincidental chain of events, which led to a tragic death of a good respected leader and lots of other good people. It was an excessive pressure on fate. The place and time of this catastrophe and the chance to easily avoid it, make it even more extraordinary and a bitterly symbolic and shocking tragedy.